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Prediction for CME (2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-04T04:17Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26324/-1
CME Note: First of two CMEs seen to the N and W in SOHO/STEREO A imagery in association with a long duration M1.9-class flare near the vicinity of AR13386 (N12W46) and a complex, sympathetic eruptive signature before/after the flare. This CME is directed more northward than the latter CME, appearing bulbous with a protruding leading edge and a wide/faint shock seen predominantly to the N and NE. Arrival signature: Likely an arrival of a flux rope at L1, associated with an increase of B total to over 10nT, with rotation of magnetic field components. Confirmed by the LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T01:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T07:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-08-04T10:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 605
Longitude (deg): 40W
Latitude (deg): 20N
Half-angular width (deg): 55

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Alister McHardy

Lead Time: 51.08 hour(s)
Difference: -5.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-08-04T22:10Z

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